Card ledger — every cell, its source, its confidence
FACT LEDGER — "On the Record" counter to Team Talarico's "On the Issues" card
Built 2026-08-18. Every cell on the graphic maps to a row here. Confidence: VP primary doc fetched · VS reputable press
CARD A — "ON THE RECORD · DATA CENTERS" (3 columns × 3 rows + Keller strap)
Row 01 · THE MONEY
| Cell | Text on card | Basis | Source | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paxton | $448,000 from data-center executives & PACs, through June 30 | NOTUS review of FEC filings; ≥17 execs/PACs (Saulsbury ×2 $100k, SAGO Energy $100k, Rosewood's Laurie Harrison $107k, Hillwood CEO Todd Platt $3.5k, etc.) | https://www.notus.org/technology/ken-paxton-data-centers-texas-senate-race-james-talarico ; https://www.keranews.org/news/2026-08-11/data-center-industry-contributes-thousands-to-ken-paxton-campaign-texas-attorney-general-james-talarico | VS |
| Talarico | $10,000,000 from AI billionaire Reid Hoffman to his super PAC — disclosed one week before his data-center press conference | Lone Star Rising PAC (C00918268) Q2 F3X filed 7/15/26; receipt dated 6/30/26; presser 7/22/26. Hoffman = Greylock, Microsoft board, Inflection AI co-founder. Cumulative $11.5M. | https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/fecimg/?202607159890612547 ; https://www.fec.gov/data/receipts/?committee_id=C00918268&contributor_name=hoffman&two_year_transaction_period=2026 | VP |
| Hall | $0 from the data-center or AI industry. Small donors. Filing fee raised in the open. | Hall for Senate C00954123 — the candidate to attest no industry-linked receipts | fec.gov/data/committee/C00954123 | attested by candidate |
Optional Talarico sub-line (if space): "+ $500,000 from the family of an Nvidia board member" — Simone Coxe $400k (1/9/26) + $100k (12/8/25) to LSR (FEC schedule A; Forbes 6/18/26). VP.
Row 02 · THE RECORD
| Cell | Text on card | Basis | Source | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paxton | Hood County asked his office in February whether counties can pause data centers. Six months later: no opinion. | AG opinion request Feb 2026, status "pending" on OAG site as of Aug 11 (182 days per Lone Star Left) | https://www.keranews.org/energy-environment/2026-02-25/data-center-moratorium-texas-hood-county-ken-paxton ; https://www.lonestarleft.com/p/paxtons-promise-brought-to-you-by | VS |
| Talarico | 0 data-center bills in eight years in the Texas House. Missed the final vote on SB 6 — the one large-load grid bill. | TLO author/coauthor reports 86R–89R: none on data centers/ERCOT/large loads/grid. SB 6 (89R): YEA 2nd reading RV 3558 (5/26/25); ABSENT 3rd reading RV 3643 (5/27/25), unexcused, no statement of vote. | https://capitol.texas.gov/reports/report.aspx?LegSess=89R&ID=author&Code=A3685 ; https://journals.house.texas.gov/HJRNL/89R/HTML/89RDAY75FINAL.HTM | VP |
| Hall | Testified before Texas Senate Finance, July 27, 2026, on data-center load on the ERCOT grid. | Testimony scope rule: grid load + identifier keys ONLY | campaign records; hearing notice on positions.html | VP |
Row 03 · THE PLAN
| Cell | Text on card | Basis | Source | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paxton | "We've got to figure out a way." Policy plan "coming shortly." | Valuetainment interview (~5/15/26): "We've got to figure out a way to keep up… I think there needs to be some balance." Spox 8/11: plan coming shortly. Not released as of 8/18. | https://www.notus.org/technology/ken-paxton-data-centers-texas-senate-race-james-talarico ; KERA 8/11 | VS |
| Talarico | Declined a moratorium. His website: "support legislation to study." | Tribune 7/22 (via Denton R-C): "did not call for a moratorium." Site plank verbatim. | https://dentonrc.com/news/politics/james-talarico-calls-for-tighter-regulations-on-data-center-development/article_1bcf2d04-e400-4370-901e-a619048083fc.html ; https://jamestalarico.com/issue/social-media-artificial-intelligence-tech/ | VS / VP |
| Hall | No blank check on power, water, or taxes. Large loads pay their own interconnection before any incentive. Enforceable conditions, not promises. | Position ledger P-01, P-02 verbatim; Keller package line | campaign records | VP |
Strap · KELLER
"Right now in Keller: a 300-megawatt data center approved 506 feet from backyards. Injunction hearing Aug 26. Neither of them has said a word about it. (Public record as of Aug 18.)" - 300 MW / 506 ft: developer's own numbers at Westlake P&Z 8/4; Westlake staff's 506 ft — Westlake P&Z record, Aug 4, 2026 (VP) - Hearing: TRO Cause 342-381199-26, hearing Aug 26, 2026 10 AM, 342nd District Court (VP) - "Neither has said a word": both research agents searched press + social through 8/18 and found no Paxton or Talarico statement naming Keller/Westlake/Circle T (research/01 §A8 and "Talarico — not found on record"). Dated claim; updated if either candidate speaks.
Footer
"Sources: FEC F3X C00918268 (filed 7/15/26) · NOTUS/KERA 8/11/26 · Texas House Journal 89R RV 3643 · TLO author reports 86R–89R · KERA 2/25/26 · full ledger at [link]" "Paid for by Hall for Senate · FEC C00954123 · Write-in, U.S. Senate, Texas · WRITE IN: H-A-L-L"
CARD B — "WE CHECKED THEIR CARD" (fact-check of the Talarico graphic)
| Their cell | Verdict | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paxton: "Data centers in communities" | INFERENCE — no such statement. He said: "I have a lot of sensitivity to local communities that don't want things built next to their neighborhoods." What IS true: $448k from the industry; 6-month silence on Hood County's request. | research/01 A1, A2, A4 | NOTUS; KERA |
| Talarico: "Rein in data centers" | RECORD SAYS: 0 bills in 8 years; absent on SB 6 final passage; declined a moratorium; $10M from an AI billionaire disclosed a week before the presser. | research/03 | FEC; House Journal; TLO |
| Paxton: "Opposes legalizing marijuana" | FAIR — sued six cities (Austin, San Marcos, Killeen, Elgin, Denton, Dallas) to overturn voter-approved decriminalization; on video Aug 15: "I don't know the details of it." No direct legalization quote exists. | research/02 A2 | KUT 1/31/24; Tribune 11/21/24; Raw Story 8/15/26 |
| Talarico: "Supports legalizing marijuana" | TRUE — filed HB 4089 (2021) and HB 1831 (2023) to legalize; NAY on SB 3 THC ban both readings; site says "Legalize regulated marijuana for adults." | research/02 A1 | TLO; House Journal RV 3192/3304; jamestalarico.com |
| Paxton: "Bulldoze Big Bend for border wall" | NO SUCH STATEMENT. He has refused to say whether construction should proceed (Tribune 8/12). Cornyn, Abbott, and GOP sheriffs oppose it. CBP paused all work in the park Aug 17. | research/02 B1 | Tribune/KRGV 8/12; Tribune 8/17 |
| Talarico: "Protect Big Bend National Park" | TRUE — "a monument to corruption" (Sanderson, 7/13); NAY on HB 9 (2021), SB 3 88(4), HB 7 (2023) — every state wall/border-force bill. | research/02 B2 | Marfa Public Radio 7/13; House Journals |
| Score line: 2 of 6 clean — two true (both Talarico's: marijuana, Big Bend), one fair (Paxton marijuana), one inference (Paxton data centers), one with no statement behind it (Paxton Big Bend), one contradicted by his own record (Talarico data centers). "Evidence does not get a party label." — Hall position P-06. |
CARD C — "THE DATA-CENTER VOTE" (House Journal page, verbatim)
| Element | Text on card | Basis | Source | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Journal fragment | SB 6 ON THIRD READING … passed by (Record 3643): 103 Yeas, 25 Nays, 2 PNV … Absent — … Talarico; Walle. | House's own HTML reproduced verbatim (Yeas list truncated for space, disclosed on card); circle + ABSENT stamp are the only additions | https://journals.house.texas.gov/HJRNL/89R/HTML/89RDAY75FINAL.HTM (fragment saved at research/sb6_journal_fragment.html) | VP |
| 103–25 / signed June 20, 2025 | — | TLO SB 6 history | https://capitol.texas.gov/BillLookup/History.aspx?LegSess=89R&Bill=SB6 | VP |
| "10 … filed statements … Talarico filed none" | Statements of Vote for RV 3643: Campos, Collier, Craddick, J. Garcia, V. Jones, Kerwin, LaHood, Pierson, Schoolcraft, Simmons. No Talarico statement. | same journal day | VP | |
| "Absent at the 10 a.m. roll call … present three votes later" | RV 3642 (roll, 10 a.m.) Absent list includes Talarico; "(Talarico now present)" recorded after RV 3646 | same journal day | VP | |
| "Fourteen months after that: a press conference" | 5/27/25 → 7/22/26 | Tribune 7/22/26 | VS | |
| "0 bills … four sessions" | TLO author/coauthor reports 86R–89R | see research/03 | VP | |
| Note: he voted YEA on 2nd reading (RV 3558, 5/26/25). The card says "absent for the final vote," never "voted against." Keep it that way. |
Talarico — data-center record and money
Talarico × Data Centers — Fact Ledger (compiled 2026-08-18)
Confidence: VP = verified-primary (official journal/FEC/campaign site), VS = verified-secondary (fetched press), UNV = unverified.
1. Stated positions
| # | Claim | Exact quote / detail | Source | Date | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.1 | 6-point plan, Austin presser | (1) federal minimum standards; (2) repeal TX data-center sales-tax exemption; (3) large loads pay own infrastructure; (4) closed-loop water; (5) local approve/reject; (6) release tax-break records | https://www.ksat.com/news/texas/2026/07/22/james-talarico-calls-for-tighter-regulations-on-data-center-development/ ; https://www.newsweek.com/james-talarico-unveils-texas-data-center-crackdown-plan-list-of-proposals-12235397 | 7/22/26 | VS |
| 1.2 | Framing | "Texas should be a leader when it comes to innovation and technology, but that only works if Texans get a say and get a share…" | https://www.tpr.org/government-politics/2026-07-22/james-talarico-calls-for-tighter-regulations-on-data-center-development | 7/22/26 | VS |
| 1.3 | Attack line | "Data centers are jacking up utility bills across the state of Texas." / "Billionaire-backed politicians are giving sweetheart tax deals to giant AI companies…" | TPR | 7/22/26 | VS |
| 1.5 | NO moratorium — splits from Goodwin/Eckhardt/Tucker who backed one | "Talarico did not call for a moratorium…" | https://dentonrc.com/news/politics/james-talarico-calls-for-tighter-regulations-on-data-center-development/article_1bcf2d04-e400-4370-901e-a619048083fc.html | 7/22/26 | VS |
| 1.6 | Plan "overlaps significantly" with Abbott's June proposal; "willing to work with anybody, including the governor" | — | Denton R-C | 7/22/26 | VS |
| 1.7 | "welcoming those investments while also protecting working people" | — | https://www.christianpost.com/news/talarico-pushes-regulatory-framework-for-ai-data-centers.html | 7/24/26 | VS |
| 1.9 | Abilene roundtable: "fight to rein in these companies… paying for their own energy" | — | https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/800-attend-democratic-senate-candidate-010841840.html | ~8/13–17/26 | VS |
| 1.10 | Campaign-site plank is milder: "Guarantee large energy users like data centers fund the infrastructure improvements they need… and support legislation to study the best ways for America to take advantage of the benefits of AI without disrupting communities." | — | https://jamestalarico.com/issue/social-media-artificial-intelligence-tech/ | current | VP |
| 1.11 | "AI dividend" (Arlington): "we want our royalty checks" — "offered no blueprint for implementing" | — | https://tylerpaper.com/2026/08/10/talaricos-economic-plan-calls-for-ai-dividends-help-for-homebuyers/ | 8/6–9/26 | VS |
2. Legislative record (House Journals, VP)
SB 6, 89R (2025) — large-load / data-center grid bill | Vote | Date | Result | Talarico | Source | |---|---|---|---|---| | Turner Amdt 3 (adds transmission-cost allocation to residential/small commercial to PUC consideration), RV 3404 | 5/23/25 | 80-59-2 | YEA | https://journals.house.texas.gov/HJRNL/89R/HTML/89RDAY71FINAL.HTM | | King amendments RV 3555/3556/3557 | 5/26/25 | — | YEA all | https://journals.house.texas.gov/HJRNL/89R/HTML/89RDAY74FINAL.HTM | | 2nd reading passage, RV 3558 | 5/26/25 | 117-24-1 | YEA | same | | 3rd reading / final House passage, RV 3643 | 5/27/25 | 103-25-2 | ABSENT (not excused; no statement of vote; "(Talarico now present)" recorded after RV 3646 later that day) | https://journals.house.texas.gov/HJRNL/89R/HTML/89RDAY75FINAL.HTM | Signed 6/20/25. → Voted FOR SB 6 on 2nd reading and every amendment; missed final passage.
HB 5, 88R (2023) — JETI (statutorily excludes data centers — a tax-abatement vote, not a data-center vote: https://www.citizen.org/article/texas-data-center-policy-guide/) | Vote | Date | Result | Talarico | Source | |---|---|---|---|---| | 2nd reading, RV 1054 | 5/4/23 | 118-22 | YEA | https://journals.house.texas.gov/HJRNL/88R/HTML/88RDAY55FINAL.HTM | | 3rd reading, RV 1082 | 5/5/23 | 120-24-1 | YEA | https://journals.house.texas.gov/HJRNL/88R/HTML/88RDAY56FINAL.HTM | | Conference committee report, RV 2260 | 5/28/23 | 100-36-1 | NAY | https://journals.house.texas.gov/HJRNL/88R/HTML/88RDAY74FINAL.HTM | → "HB 5 NO" is only true for the final conference report; he voted YES on House passage twice. (Corrects the 7/25 counter-opp memory.)
HB 1556, 87R (2021) — Ch. 313 renewal: died; Talarico YEA on Tinderholt Amdt 1 (gutting expansion) and Rosenthal Amdt 6 (local hire). https://journals.house.texas.gov/HJRNL/87R/HTML/87RDAY44FINAL.HTM
Authored/co-authored bills 86R–89R (TLO author reports, VP): NONE on data centers, ERCOT, large loads, or grid. Closest: HB 4090 (87R) on-site solar/storage grants (died); HB 2491 (89R) algorithmic rent-pricing (no hearing). https://capitol.texas.gov/reports/report.aspx?LegSess=89R&ID=author&Code=A3685 (and 88R/87R/86R). Site claim re "AI Advisory Council" = floor vote on HB 2060 (Capriglione), not his bill.
3. Money (FEC, VP unless noted)
| # | Fact | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 3.1 | Reid Hoffman → Lone Star Rising PAC (C00918268): $10,000,000, receipt date 2026-06-30, reported on Q2 F3X filed 7/15/26 (file #1997455). Employer Greylock Partners. Prior $500k (1/27/26) + $1M (2/23/26). Cumulative $11.5M. Presser 7/22 = 7 days after disclosure. | https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/fecimg/?202607159890612547 ; https://www.fec.gov/data/receipts/?committee_id=C00918268&contributor_name=hoffman&two_year_transaction_period=2026 ; https://www.thecoffmanchronicle.com/p/reid-hoffman-gives-10-million-to |
| 3.2 | Chris Larsen (Ripple CEO) → LSR $500,000, 5/6/26 | https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/fecimg/?202607159890612548 |
| 3.3 | Simone Coxe (wife of Nvidia board member Tench Coxe) → LSR $400,000 (1/9/26) + $100,000 (12/8/25); Tench & Simone Coxe $10,500 each to Talarico for Texas (9/9/25) | FEC schedule A; https://www.click2houston.com/news/texas/2026/05/14/here-are-the-megadonors-and-dark-money-groups-boosting-james-talaricos-anti-billionaire-senate-bid/ ; https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrew-balaban/2026/06/18/the-billionaires-backing-the-anti-billionaire-democrat-james-talarico-running-for-us-senate-in-texas-donors/ |
| 3.4 | Other LSR: Government That Works PAC $3.75M (Sixteen Thirty Fund $4M dark money); America Votes $900k; Stephen Mandel $500k; Don Henley $300k; Adam Pritzker $180k; Mark Heising $100k | FEC; Tribune 5/14 |
| 3.5 | Talarico for Texas (C00919084) Big-Tech employee aggregates: Google ~$75k, Apple $41k, Amazon $21.5k, Microsoft $16.7k, Nvidia $14.8k, Meta $14.4k, IBM $13.3k, Oracle ~$12.8k. No corporate/tech PACs in top 40. | https://api.open.fec.gov/v1/schedules/schedule_a/by_employer/?committee_id=C00919084&cycle=2026 |
| 3.6 | Bay Area donor swing 4/15–17/26 (Rusenko/Alter, Leap Forward Ventures) | https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/talarico-courted-silicon-valley-donors-085000379.html |
| 3.7 | Crypto: Fellowship PAC (Tether-led) $1.75M FOR Paxton in GOP runoff; no Fairshake spend on Talarico found | tradingview/cointelegraph |
| 3.8 | LSR files quarterly; next Q3 due 10/15/26 | FEC API |
4. Williamson County / district ties — NOTHING FOUND (UNV either way).
5. Pro-tech quotes that cut against "rein in": 1.2, 1.7, 1.10; site touts "Texas Semiconductor Innovation Consortium."
Gaps
Tribune originals 403 (used syndications). MS NOW "rein in" quote from snippet only. Q3 FEC not yet filed. TEC state-level donors not pulled.
Paxton — data centers; race context; Texas data-center fights
Fact Ledger — Paxton & data centers / race context / TX data-center salience (compiled 2026-08-18)
Confidence key: VP = verified-primary (official/original source fetched); VS = verified-secondary (reputable press, fetched or search-snippet confirmed); UNV = unverified/not found.
TOPIC A — Ken Paxton & data centers
| # | Claim | Exact quote / detail | Source URL | Date | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1 | Paxton's only substantive on-record data-center remarks are from a Valuetainment / Patrick Bet-David interview; he framed it as a China race and called it "complicated." | "we are competing with China with artificial intelligence, and we cannot lose that race" … "We've got to figure out a way to keep up and not just keep up — to excel" … "I have a lot of sensitivity to local communities that don't want things built next to their neighborhoods" … "I think there needs to be some balance." Said decisions should be "decided by local communities, potentially with the input of their state officials." | https://www.christianpost.com/news/talarico-pushes-regulatory-framework-for-ai-data-centers.html ; https://www.notus.org/technology/ken-paxton-data-centers-texas-senate-race-james-talarico ; https://www.keranews.org/news/2026-08-11/data-center-industry-contributes-thousands-to-ken-paxton-campaign-texas-attorney-general-james-talarico | Interview ~May 15, 2026; articles Jul 24 / Aug 11, 2026 | VS (interview itself not fetched — quotes consistent across 3 outlets) |
| A2 | Paxton's federal political operation took at least $448,000 from data-center executives/PACs through June 30, 2026 (NOTUS FEC review; ≥17 corporate PACs/execs). | Named: Charles "Dick" Saulsbury Sr./Saulsbury Industries $100k (Jun 30); Charles "Bubba" Saulsbury Jr. $100k (Jun 26); SAGO Energy LP $100k (Jun 30); Laurie Harrison (Rosewood Corp; portfolio co. General Informatics owns ≥3 data centers) $100k to Paxton Victory (Jun 22) + $7k to campaign; William Kent (Kent Companies) $50k to Lone Star Liberty super PAC (May 19); Tyler Winklevoss $13.5k (Jun 30); Todd Platt (CEO, Hillwood — Perot family co., 400-acre data center north of Fort Worth) $3,500; Black Mountain Energy Storage VP of land $17k to Paxton PACs (May); CRH PAC $5k; Valero PAC $5k; Albert Huddleston. | https://www.notus.org/technology/ken-paxton-data-centers-texas-senate-race-james-talarico ; https://www.keranews.org/news/2026-08-11/... ; https://www.lonestarleft.com/p/paxtons-promise-brought-to-you-by ; https://www.sacurrent.com/news/ken-paxtons-u-s-senate-campaign-has-pulled-in-nearly-450000-in-data-center-donations/ | Aug 11-12, 2026 | VS (FEC C00930446 = Paxton nominee fund — line items not independently pulled) |
| A3 | Hillwood/Perot tie = only a $3,500 Todd Platt donation. No Stargate/OpenAI, Fermi America/Rick Perry/Neugebauer, PowerHouse/AREP, Google, or Meta donation to Paxton surfaced in any reporting. | — | Same as A2 | — | UNV — do not claim them |
| A4 | As AG, Paxton has sat on Hood County's Feb 2026 request for an opinion on whether counties may impose a data-center moratorium; still "pending" ~6 months later (182 days per Lone Star Left, Aug 11). Request followed Sen. Paul Bettencourt letter to Paxton arguing counties lack that authority. | Status "pending" on AG website | https://www.keranews.org/energy-environment/2026-02-25/data-center-moratorium-texas-hood-county-ken-paxton ; https://www.texastribune.org/2026/02/10/texas-hood-county-rejects-data-center-development-pause-ai/ ; https://www.lonestarleft.com/p/paxtons-promise-brought-to-you-by | Feb 10-25, 2026; Aug 11, 2026 | VS |
| A5 | No AG lawsuit by Paxton against a local government over data centers found. (Developer suits exist — Hill County sued by a developer May 2026, rescinded its ban.) | — | https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/12/texas-hill-county-approves-data-center-construction-pause-ai/ ; https://fortworthreport.org/2026/06/17/rural-north-texas-counties-trying-to-regulate-data-centers-face-legal-threats/ | May-Jun 2026 | UNV (no such suit found) |
| A6 | Paxton campaign says a data-center policy plan is coming "shortly"; not released as of Aug 11-12. | Spokesperson Madison Cercy: "AG Paxton's standard hasn't changed. He is laser-focused on protecting Texas families, Texas water and the Texas grid." | https://www.keranews.org/news/2026-08-11/... ; https://www.tpr.org/government-politics/2026-08-11/data-center-industry-contributes-thousands-to-paxton-campaign | Aug 11, 2026 | VS |
| A7 | Paxton publicly silent otherwise: Spectrum News (Jul 24) — "hasn't spoke on data centers… reached out… haven't heard back"; NOTUS (Aug 11) — neither campaign nor AG office responded. | — | https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/south-texas-el-paso/news/2026/07/24/data-centers-flash-point-election | Jul 24 / Aug 11, 2026 | VS |
| A8 | Paxton comment on Keller/Westlake Circle T, SB 6, ERCOT large loads, or ratepayer costs | None found. | — | — | UNV — treat as silence, not a position |
| A9 | Cell-tower wealth story (NYT ~Aug 9-10, 2026): Premier Vertical Properties leased land for a tower at Baylor Scott & White Frisco while he sat on the hospital board (2003-2013). Not a data-center story. | — | https://hoodline.com/2026/08/paxton-s-frisco-cell-tower-deal-draws-fire-as-talarico-leads-texas-senate-race/ ; https://www.texarkanagazette.com/news/2026/aug/12/one-source-of-paxtons-wealth-a-cell-tower-at-a/ | Aug 10-12, 2026 | VS |
| A10 | Paxton campaigns on Big Tech legal wins (privacy suits vs Google/Meta) — a tech-adversary frame. | — | https://www.texastribune.org/2026/06/03/texas-ken-paxton-tech-lawsuits-senate-campaign/ | Jun 3, 2026 | VS |
Bottom line: The factual basis for "Paxton = data centers in communities" is (a) $448k industry money, (b) the China-race quote, (c) 6-month non-answer to Hood County. It is not an affirmative Paxton statement endorsing data centers in neighborhoods — he said "sensitivity to local communities." Both men are on record deferring to "local say" — Talarico as policy, Paxton in one podcast answer, while Paxton's office holds the one legal question a county actually asked him.
TOPIC B — Race context
| # | Claim | Detail | URL | Date | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B1 | Emerson/Nexstar: Paxton 47, Talarico 46, undecided 5, other 2. 60% of Texas voters oppose data centers in/near their community, 33% support; 71% say legislators put own financial interests first. | Field Aug 9-10, n=1,000 LV, ±3 | https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-paxton-and-talarico/ | Rel. Aug 13, 2026 | VP |
| B2 | 254 Labs: Talarico 48, Paxton 45 (Jul 15-31). Texas Pulse (ReconMR/A&M Bush/Siena): Talarico 47, Paxton 43 (Jul 27-30). | — | https://www.texastribune.org/2026/08/07/texas-us-senate-james-talarico-ken-paxton-polls/ | Aug 4-7, 2026 | VS |
| B3 | Ballot: Paxton (R), Talarico (D), Ted Brown (L). Politics1 lists "Brad Hall (WI)" — write-in. | — | https://politics1.com/tx.htm | fetched Aug 18 | VS |
| B4 | TX SOS independent-declaration page shows one U.S. Senate independent (Jade Simmons) — Rejected. No write-ins on that page. | — | https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/laws/independent-declarations-2026.shtml | fetched Aug 18 | VP |
| B5 | Write-in deadline: 5:00 p.m. Aug 17, 2026. | — | https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/candidates/guide/2026/writein2026.shtml | — | VP |
| B6 | SOS certified write-in list for 2026 not yet posted. | — | — | as of Aug 18 | UNV — check SOS |
TOPIC C — Data-center salience in Texas (Aug 2026)
| # | Story | Key facts | URL | Date | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Keller/Westlake "Circle T" — PowerHouse Data Centers, ~88 acres on US 377, four buildings, 300 MW. Westlake P&Z approved site plan Aug 4. TRO signed Aug 17; injunction hearing Aug 26, 10 a.m., 342nd District Court. | Keller Mayor McMullin: "The courts have intervened to temporarily halt any further action…" | https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/judge-blocks-westlake-vote-data-center-restraining-order-keller-hoa/ ; https://www.wbap.com/2026/08/17/judge-signs-tro-blocking-westlake-data-center-vote/ ; https://www.cityofkeller.com/about-us/city-leadership/city-council/westlakedatacenter | Aug 4-18, 2026 | VS (own package at G:\orpheus\inbox\keller_council_2026-08-12 is VP) |
| C2 | Abbott audit/pause — Aug 3 letter orders PUC/ERCOT audit of all data-center projects in queue; ~474 GW requests, ~90% data centers; ERCOT suspended Batch Zero notices; PUCT Aug 20. | Abbott: volume "could endanger the reliability and stability of the Texas electric grid" | https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-directs-comprehensive-data-center-audit ; https://www.texastribune.org/2026/08/14/texas-data-center-approval-pause-ercot-power-grid/ | Aug 3-14, 2026 | VP/VS |
| C3 | ERCOT queue — 63 GW (Dec 2024) → 410 GW (Mar 2026), ~87% AI data centers. | — | https://www.latitudemedia.com/news/ercots-large-load-queue-has-nearly-quadrupled-in-a-single-year/ | 2026 | VS |
| C4 | Ratepayer costs — TX residential rates up ~40% since 2020 (11.50¢→16.11¢/kWh); Abbott Jun 10 directive; Cuellar "Ratepayer Bill of Rights Act" (Aug 17). | — | https://www.kwtx.com/2026/08/10/texas-power-bills-surge-infrastructure-costs-data-center-growth-strain-grid/ ; https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-directs-puc-and-ercot-to-shield-texans-from-data-center-infrastructure-costs | Jun-Aug 2026 | VS |
| C5 | Hood/Somervell "Comanche Circle" — 2,100+ acres near Dinosaur Valley SP; Hood County rejected moratorium twice, asked Paxton (A4). Hays County paused; Hill County ban collapsed after developer suit. | — | https://www.fwweekly.com/2026/08/12/data-center-tussle-in-paluxy/ ; https://www.texastribune.org/2026/06/02/texas-data-centers-hood-county-local-control-rural-water-power/ | Jun-Aug 2026 | VS |
| C6 | Abilene/Stargate — 4.5 GW; housing crisis; worker-safety concerns. | — | https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/texas/2026/08/12/559282/abilene-tx-stargate-ai-data-center-economy-housing-crisis/ | Aug 12, 2026 | VS |
| C7 | Amarillo/Fermi "Project Matador" — 5,800 acres by Pantex, 11 GW, Perry/Neugebauer; Ogallala concerns. | — | https://cleanview.co/reports/fermi | 2026 | VS |
Talarico — what he has named vs. not
- Platform (Austin presser Jul 22, 2026): federal minimums; repeal TX data-center sales-tax exemption; large users pay interconnection; closed-loop water; local approve/reject; release tax-break records; "AI dividend" (Arlington ~Aug 5-8). Explicitly did NOT call for a moratorium. https://www.texastribune.org/2026/07/22/texas-james-talarico-data-centers-regulation-senate-2026/ ; https://c-span.org/event/campaign-2026/texas-democratic-us-senate-candidate-james-talarico-holds-news-conference-on-data-center-policy/445301
- Named by him: Amarillo, Lubbock, Abernathy/Hale County, Abilene.
- Not found on record (apparent silence): Keller/Westlake Circle T; Hood County/Comanche Circle by name; Fermi/Perry by name; Abbott's Aug 3 audit/pause; PUC Batch Zero; SB 6.
Flags
- Hall public footprint: only Politics1 "Brad Hall (WI)". SOS write-in certification not yet published.
- Paxton "policy plan" — no release found as of Aug 18.
- Nothing ties Paxton to Stargate, Fermi, Google, Meta, PowerHouse, or Perot beyond the $3,500 Hillwood CEO gift — do not overstate.
Marijuana and Big Bend — both candidates
Fact Ledger — Paxton vs. Talarico: Marijuana & Big Bend (as of 2026-08-18)
Confidence key: VP = verified-primary (journal/official/original text fetched); VS = verified-secondary; UNV = unverified/not found.
TOPIC A — MARIJUANA
A1. Talarico's record (state Rep., HD-50, 2019–2026)
| # | Claim | Exact quote / vote | Source | Date | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1.1 | YES on HB 63 (86R, Moody) — possession ≤1 oz Class B→Class C | Record 780 (2nd rdg) 98-43-3 Yea; Record 801 (3rd rdg) 103-42-2 Yea | https://journals.house.texas.gov/HJRNL/86R/HTML/86RDAY54FINAL.HTM ; .../86RDAY55FINAL.HTM | Apr 29–30, 2019 | VP |
| A1.2 | Filed HB 4089 (87R) — legalize adult-use, expunge, fund early-childhood ed. No floor vote. | Filed 3/12/2021 | https://capitol.texas.gov/BillLookup/Actions.aspx?LegSess=87R&Bill=HB4089 | Mar 2021 | VP |
| A1.3 | YES on HB 1535 (87R) TCUP expansion | Record 535, 134-12-1 Yea | https://journals.house.texas.gov/HJRNL/87R/HTML/87RDAY36FINAL.HTM | Apr 29, 2021 | VP |
| A1.4 | Filed HB 1831 (88R) — legalize ≤2.5 oz for 21+ | no floor action | https://capitol.texas.gov/BillLookup/Actions.aspx?LegSess=88R&Bill=HB1831 | 2023 | VP |
| A1.5 | YES on HB 218 (88R, Moody) penalty reduction | Record 605, 87-59-1 Yea | https://journals.house.texas.gov/HJRNL/88R/HTML/88RDAY50FINAL.HTM | Apr 27, 2023 | VP |
| A1.6 | YES on HB 46 (89R) TCUP expansion | Record 2257, 122-21-2 Yea | https://journals.house.texas.gov/HJRNL/89R/HTML/89RDAY63FINAL.HTM | May 13, 2025 | VP |
| A1.7 | NO on SB 3 (89R) hemp-THC ban, both readings | Record 3192 95-44-2 Nay; Record 3304 87-54-1 Nay | https://journals.house.texas.gov/HJRNL/89R/HTML/89RDAY69FINAL.HTM ; .../89RDAY70FINAL.HTM | May 21–22, 2025 | VP |
| A1.8 | Floor remarks vs SB 3 | "This is big government at its worst…" / "This bill is insane… they'll go back to getting it from the black market. From the drug cartels." | https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/bill-bans-thc-sales-passes-texas-house/ | May 21, 2025 | VS |
| A1.9 | Special-session THC bills: no House floor vote exists | — | https://capitol.texas.gov/BillLookup/Actions.aspx?LegSess=892&Bill=SB6 | Aug–Sep 2025 | VP/VS |
| A1.10 | Abbott vetoed SB 3; DSHS admin ban effective July 31, 2026 | — | https://www.texastribune.org/2026/08/10/texas-hemp-thc-ban-federal-court-emergency/ | Jul 31, 2026 | VS |
| A1.11 | Campaign site says "legalize" | "Legalize regulated marijuana for adults: Ensure law enforcement is focused on going after violent crime… expunge criminal arrest records… regulate and impose taxes on its sale…" | https://jamestalarico.com/issue/public-safety-justice/ | fetched 2026-08-18 | VP |
| A1.13 | Aug 2, 2026 X post — THC ban "a gift to the cartels"; quotes Trump; "reverse this crazy ban" | — | https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/state/james-talarico-texas-thc-ban-president-trump-cartels/287-b29436dd-a9b8-4c57-bf90-2391b7b85990 | Aug 2–3, 2026 | VS |
Bottom line A1: "Talarico SUPPORTS legalizing marijuana" is accurate, in his own words. No inconsistency found.
A2. Paxton's record
| # | Claim | Exact quote / action | Source | Date | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A2.1 | Sued Austin, San Marcos, Killeen, Elgin, Denton over voter-approved decrim ordinances | "I will not stand idly by as cities run by pro-crime extremists deliberately violate Texas law and promote the use of illicit drugs…" | https://www.kut.org/austin/2024-01-31/attorney-general-ken-paxton-austin-san-marcos-marijuana-possession-ordinances ; https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2024/02/01/ken-paxton-sues-five-texas-cities-that-decriminalized-marijuana/ | Jan 31, 2024 | VS |
| A2.2 | Sued Dallas over Prop R (66%+ yes) | "Cities cannot pick and choose which State laws they follow…" | https://www.texastribune.org/2024/11/21/texas-cities-marijuana-ken-paxton-lawsuits/ | Nov 21, 2024 | VS |
| A2.3 | 15th COA sided with Paxton (San Marcos, Austin, Apr 2025); TX Supreme Court denied Austin petition Dec 19, 2025 | — | https://www.kut.org/politics/2025-04-21/san-marcos-texas-marijuana-decriminalization-legal-ken-paxton ; https://communityimpact.com/austin/north-central-austin/government/2025/12/19/supreme-court-declines-to-hear-austins-petition-in-marijuana-decriminalization-case/ | 2025 | VS |
| A2.5 | Stance on SB 3 / THC ban: no found statement; his office defends DSHS rules in federal court (Aug 2026) | — | https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/politics/election-2026/2026/08/03/558506/thc-ban-texas-senate-race-talarico-paxton/ | 2025–Aug 2026 | VS |
| A2.6 | Asked on video about the THC ban (Aug 15, 2026) | "Um, I don't know the details of it, but let's talk about it later" | https://www.rawstory.com/ken-paxton-2677712020/ ; https://www.sacurrent.com/news/politics-and-elections/ken-paxton-says-he-doesnt-know-details-of-texas-thc-ban-even-though-hes-the-states-top-legal-officer/ | Aug 15, 2026 | VS |
| A2.7 | Explicit "I oppose legalizing marijuana" quote | NOT FOUND. Record = anti-decrim litigation, not a stated legalization position. | — | — | UNV |
Bottom line A2: "Paxton OPPOSES legalizing" is a fair inference; defensible wording: "Paxton sued six Texas cities to overturn voter-approved marijuana decriminalization."
A3. Texas public opinion
- UT/TPP Apr 2025: 84% legal in some form; 51% recreational (https://www.marijuanamoment.net/four-in-five-texas-voters-support-legalizing-marijuana-in-some-form-poll-shows/) VS
- UT/TPP Jun 2025: THC ban opposed 53/31 (texaspolitics.utexas.edu June 2025 poll blog) VP
- UH Hobby 2025: 62% support recreational (https://www.uh.edu/hobby/tx2025/legalization.pdf) VS
- Mar 3 2026 Dem primary Prop ~80% yes on legalization (VS)
TOPIC B — BIG BEND / BORDER WALL
B1. Basis for "Bulldoze Big Bend" (Paxton)
| # | Claim | Quote / fact | Source | Date | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B1.1 | Paxton has never called for a wall through Big Bend NP nor sued over it; attack inferred from general wall alignment + refusal to say whether construction should proceed. | Tribune: "As Big Bend wall outcry builds, Paxton does not say whether construction should proceed" | https://www.texastribune.org/2026/08/12/texas-big-bend-border-wall-paxton-talarico-cornyn-trump-senate-race/ ; https://www.krgv.com/news/as-big-bend-wall-outcry-builds-paxton-does-not-say-whether-construction-should-proceed | Aug 12, 2026 | VS |
| B1.2 | Paxton spox Madison Cercy | "…committed to strong border security that protects Texans while considering the unique characteristics of different stretches of the border, including areas like Big Bend." Did not answer whether he supports barriers/roads in the park or Cornyn's halt request. | same | Aug 12, 2026 | VS |
| B1.3 | No response to Marfa Public Radio when Talarico raised Big Bend in Sanderson | — | https://www.marfapublicradio.org/news/2026-07-13/james-talarico-slams-corrupt-big-bend-border-wall-on-campaign-trail | Jul 13, 2026 | VS |
| B1.5 | Pro-wall litigation: won injunction forcing Biden to spend wall funds (final judgment May 29, 2024) | "final victory against Biden's attempt to defund the border wall" | https://texasscorecard.com/state/texas-wins-lawsuit-forcing-biden-harris-admin-to-continue-border-wall-construction/ | 2024 | VS |
| B1.8 | Contracts: Big Bend 4 ($1.7B Southwest Valley/Kiewit, through Big Bend NP — vehicle barriers, tech, roads; no 30-ft wall per CBP); $2.6B Fisher east of park | — | https://www.tpr.org/border-immigration/2026-05-22/confused-about-big-bend-area-border-wall-plans-heres-where-things-stand | May 2026 | VS |
| B1.9 | Heavy equipment entered park Aug 4, 2026; grading road to Glenn Springs; bulldozing near Santa Elena Canyon reported | — | https://bigbendsentinel.com/2026/08/04/more-questions-than-answers-as-contractors-descend-upon-big-bend-national-park/ ; https://www.npr.org/2026/08/14/nx-s1-5927276/big-bend-border-texas-rio-grande | Aug 4–14, 2026 | VS |
| B1.10 | CBP Commissioner Rodney Scott | "We are NOT building a 30-foot wall or stadium lighting through Big Bend National Park…" | https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/aug/13/cpb-chief-says-administration-not-building-30-foot-wall-big-bend/ | Aug 13, 2026 | VS |
| B1.11 | Pause Aug 17, 2026 — Scott pausing all construction in the park pending site visit; Abbott: Mullin "committed to me – they will not be building a wall or a fence in Big Bend National Park." | — | https://www.texastribune.org/2026/08/17/texas-big-bend-national-park-border-wall-construction-pause/ ; https://www.kwtx.com/2026/08/17/gov-abbott-says-homeland-security-assured-him-there-will-be-no-construction-any-type-barrier-big-bend/ | Aug 17, 2026 | VS |
| B1.12 | GOP opposition: Cornyn letter ("1,000-foot riverbank cliffs… offers its own source of deterrence"); Brandon Herrera; Terrell Co. Sheriff Cleveland "boondoggle"; 7 former superintendents; 140 businesses | — | KRGV above | Mar–Aug 2026 | VS |
| B1.13 | Big Bend Sector ≈ 1/4 of SW border, 1.3% of FY2025 apprehensions | — | KRGV above | FY2025 | VS |
Bottom line B1: "Paxton: BULLDOZE Big Bend" has no direct Paxton statement or action behind it. Verifiable: "Paxton refuses to say whether Big Bend construction should stop — even Cornyn, Abbott and local GOP sheriffs oppose it." Construction paused Aug 17.
B2. Talarico's Big Bend / border record
| # | Claim | Quote / vote | Source | Date | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B2.1 | Sanderson event Jul 13, 2026 | "A border wall through Big Bend would be a monument to corruption." / "…going to the least-trafficked section of the entire southern border and through one of the most sacred parts of Texas." | Marfa Public Radio above ; https://www.tpr.org/border-immigration/2026-07-13/talarico-unveils-border-security-plan-criticizes-biden-policies-and-trumps-big-bend-wall | Jul 13, 2026 | VS |
| B2.2 | Aug 12 statement | "We don't need to wreck one of our nation's greatest treasure by building an expensive wall on an already existing natural barrier." | KRGV above | Aug 12, 2026 | VS |
| B2.4 | NO on HB 9, 87(2) — $1.8B border security incl. ~$750M state barrier | Record 93 85-36-1 Nay | https://journals.house.texas.gov/HJRNL/872/HTML/87C2DAY05FINAL.HTM | Aug 31, 2021 | VP |
| B2.5 | NO on HB 7 (88R) Texas Border Force | Record 1406 92-51-1 Nay | https://journals.house.texas.gov/HJRNL/88R/HTML/88RDAY59FINAL.HTM | May 2023 | VP |
| B2.6 | NO on SB 3 88(4) $1.54B barrier/OLS; NO on SB 4 88(4) | Record 9 86-56-1 Nay; Record 35 83-60-1 Nay | https://journals.house.texas.gov/HJRNL/884/HTML/88C4DAY04CFINAL.HTM | Nov 14, 2023 | VP |
| B2.7 | NO on SB 8 (89R) mandatory 287(g) | Record 3476 Nay; 3502 Nay | https://journals.house.texas.gov/HJRNL/89R/HTML/89RDAY72FINAL.HTM | May 2025 | VP |
| B2.8 | Any Talarico YES on state wall appropriations | NONE FOUND (GAA votes not pulled) | — | — | UNV |
B3. Local reality
- Rio Grande = park's southern boundary 118 miles; 196 mi Wild & Scenic (https://www.nps.gov/bibe/learn/nature/riogrand.htm) VP
- CBP: no 30-ft wall in NP; vehicle barriers "in limited, strategic locations"; paused Aug 17.
Flags for the graphic
- "Paxton OPPOSES legalizing" — no direct quote; use the six lawsuits + Aug 15 "I don't know the details."
- "Paxton BULLDOZE Big Bend" — zero primary basis; he's been silent/non-committal.
- Talarico "PROTECT Big Bend" and "SUPPORTS legalizing" — fully verified.
Education / school vouchers — auditing a guides.vote card
AUDIT — guides.vote "Texas U.S. Senate 2026: Education" card (5 of 15)
Audited 2026-08-18. Card shared by Comal County Republican Party; the candidate reshared captioned "Fact Check." Confidence: VP = primary document opened by us · VS = reputable secondary, cross-corroborated · UNV = not verified.
VERDICT: 6 of 6 claims hold up. No fabrications found.
This is the opposite result from the Talarico "On the Issues" card (2 of 6). Report it that way — that asymmetry is the credibility.
PAXTON COLUMN — "Yes" (use public funding for private/for-profit schools)
| # | Card says | Verdict | Primary source |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | "Said in a legal opinion that public funds 'can be directed to public and private schools, including sectarian schools.'" | ACCURATE — verbatim, with a framing nuance | AG Opinion KP-0439, requested by Sen. Brandon Creighton (Chair, Senate Cmte on Education), re RQ-0502-KP. PDF downloaded and read locally. SUMMARY, verbatim: "An Education Savings Account program offering parents and students education assistance payments that can be directed to public and private schools, including 'sectarian' schools, and that offers parents and students a genuine and independent choice to select a private religious school does not violate the Establishment Clause." (VP) |
| P2 | "Called Texas' universal school choice law 'a major victory.'" | ACCURATE | OAG press release, "Attorney General Ken Paxton Celebrates School Choice for Texans and Vows to Defend New Law," May 3, 2025 — the day Abbott signed SB 2. Quote: "Today, Texas parents and school children secured a major victory. This universal school choice bill is a historic step…" He says "this universal school choice bill" = SB 2. (VS — OAG site returns HTTP 402 to automated fetch; confirmed via independent search corroboration + CBS Texas coverage of the same signing.) |
The nuance worth stating publicly (and it slightly favors Paxton): KP-0439 is a constitutional opinion answering a hypothetical. The opinion says explicitly, at footnote 2: "we do not opine on a particular ESA program but limit our opinion to the constitutionality of a program that generally allows participation by sectarian schools." It was issued March 2023, before SB 2 existed (SB 8 / HB 557 were the pending bills). So it establishes that such funding may constitutionally flow — not that it should. His actual advocacy is the May 2025 "major victory" release, which is the stronger of the two citations. The card picked the weaker one.
Soft spot: the header question says "private and/or for-profit schools." Whether SB 2's enacted ESA program actually admits for-profit private schools (vs. accredited/nonprofit only) is UNV — not checked against the enrolled bill text or Comptroller rules.
TALARICO COLUMN — "No"
| # | Card says | Verdict | Primary source |
|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | Opposes "taking tax dollars out of our public schools to subsidize private education." | ACCURATE but self-sourced | jamestalarico.com/issue/public-education/ — his own campaign site, fuller quote adds "…even for billionaires like Elon Musk." Corroborated by his votes (below). (VP for existence; note it's campaign material, not an independent record.) |
| T2 | Is "passionately against" private school vouchers. | ACCURATE — verbatim, verified by us in the journal | Texas House Journal, 89R, Day 45 (Wed., April 16, 2025), floor remarks on his own Amendment No. 3 to CSSB 2: "Members, regardless of where you are on this bill—you know that I am passionately against vouchers; that is no secret. There are friends of mine in this chamber who are passionately for vouchers, and that is fine." (VP — pulled and grepped 89RDAY45FINAL.HTM directly) |
| T3 | "Wants to allow Texas voters to directly decide the vouchers question." | ACCURATE | He authored Amendment No. 3 to CSSB 2 requiring a statewide referendum on Nov. 4, 2025 before the program could take effect. Motion to table prevailed, Record Vote 244: 86 Yeas, 62 Nays, 1 Present not voting — Talarico voted Nay (against killing his own amendment). Phelan was the lone R in the Nays. (VP — verified in the journal ourselves) |
| T4 | "It's the only thing that would put this issue to bed." | ACCURATE in substance; minor transcription variance | Journal records it as "It is the only thing that will put this issue to bed because, believe me, even if this passes, we will be back here next session…" Card's "It's / would" matches news transcription (CBS Austin 4/16/25), not the Journal verbatim. Meaning unchanged — not a fabrication. (VP) |
Talarico's broader voucher record (all consistent with "No"): SB 2 (89R, 2025) — voted against; Amendment 3 referendum — authored, tabled 86-62; HB 1 (88R, 2023) Herrero Amendment 45 barring voucher appropriations — voted Yea (RV 111); SB 8 (88R, 2023) — died in committee, no floor vote existed.
ABOUT THE SOURCE (guides.vote)
Founded ~2012, fiscally sponsored by Youth Service America; staff-composed candidate summaries (unlike LWV/Vote411 and Ballotpedia, which mostly publish candidate self-answers or raw records). Distribution partners skew toward left-leaning/youth-civic orgs. The Federalist (9/20/2024) alleged asymmetric framing in its 2024 presidential guide. None of that showed up in this card — this one cites primary documents, including the House Journal, which is better practice than most voter guides.
Worth noting fairly: guides.vote's own site concedes a structural asymmetry — an incumbent with a voting record reads as more "controversial" than a candidate without one. That's visible here: Talarico's side is sourced to floor votes and journal pages; Paxton's to an AG opinion and a press release.